The Dangers of Share Tipping, Alliance Trust and AIM Regulation

Share tipping is a mug’s game. Both for the tipsters and their readers. More evidence of this was provided yesterday.

Investors Chronicle issued their “Tips of the Week” via email during the day. It included a “BUY” recommendation on Conviviality (CVR). Unfortunately soon after, the company issued a trading statement which said the forecast EBITDA for the current year (ending 30^th April) will be 20% below market expectations. Conviviality is a wholesaler, distributor and retailer of alcohol and it seems there was a “material error in the financial forecasts” in one part of the business and that margins have “softened”.

The share price dropped by almost 60% during the day and fell another 10% today at the time of writing. This puts the business based on the new forecasts on a prospective p/e of less than 6 and a dividend yield of over 10% (assuming it is held). Is this a bargain?

Having had a quick look at the financial profile I am not sure it is. Although net debt of £150 million may not be too high in relation to current revenues or profits, their net profit margin is very small and their current ratio is less than 1, although this is not unusual in retailers who tend to pay for goods after they have sold them.

Another tip Investors Chronicle gave yesterday was on Fulham Shore (FUL) which they rated a SELL on the grounds that “growth looks unsustainable”. They got that one right. The company issued a trading statement on the day which also said EBITDA would be below market expectations. Their London restaurants are simply serving fewer customers. The share price dropped 17% on the day. This looks to be symptomatic of the problems of restaurant chains – Prezzo are closing a number of outlets which I was not surprised at because from my visits it seemed rather pedestrian food at high prices. Restaurant Group also reported continuing negative like-for-like figures recently, perhaps partly because of price cutting to attract customers back. Restaurants are being hit by higher costs and disappearing customers. Boring food from tired formulas is no longer good enough to make money.

Another announcement yesterday was results from Alliance Trust (ATST). This is a company that I, ShareSoc, some investors in the trust and hedge fund Elliott Advisors spent a lot of effort on to cause a revolution a couple of years ago so it’s good to see the outcome has been beneficial. Total shareholder return was 19.1% which was well ahead of their benchmark. There was a lot of doubt expressed by many commentators on the new multi-manager investment strategy adopted by the board of directors and the involvement of Elliott, who were subsequently bought out, but it has turned out very well.

The only outstanding issue is the continuing problems at Alliance Trust Savings. They report the integration of the Stocktrade business they acquired from Brewin Dolphin has proved “challenging”. Staff have been moved from Edinburgh to Dundee and the CEO has departed. Customer complaints rose and they no doubt lost a lot of former Stocktrade customers such as me when they decided to stop offering personal crest accounts. So Alliance have written down the value of Alliance Trust Savings by another £13 million as an exceptional charge. No stockbrokers are making much money at present due to very low interest rates of cash held. It has never been clear why Alliance Trust Savings is strategic to the business and it’s very unusual for an investment trust to run its own savings/investment platform. Tough decisions still need to be taken on this matter.

AIM Regulation. The London Stock Exchange has published a revised set of rules for AIM market companies – see here: http://www.londonstockexchange.com/companies-and-advisors/aim/advisers/aim-notices/aim-rules-for-companies-march-2018-clean.pdf .

It now includes a requirement for AIM companies to declare adherence to a Corporate Governance Code. At present there is no such obligation, although some companies adhere to the QCA Code, or some foreign code, or simply pick and choose from the main market code. I and ShareSoc did push for such a rule, and you can see our comments on the review of the AIM rules and original proposals here: https://www.sharesoc.org/blog/regulations-and-law/aim-rules-review/ and here is a summary of the changes published by the LSE: http://www.londonstockexchange.com/companies-and-advisors/aim/advisers/aim-notices/aim-notice-50.pdf (there is also a marked up version of the rule book that gives details of the other changes which I have to admit I have not had the time to peruse as yet).

In summary these are positive moves and the AIM market is improving in some regards although it still has a long way to go to weed out all the dubious operators and company directors in this market.

Roger Lawson (Twitter: https://twitter.com/RogerWLawson )

Post Date: March 9, 2018

Roger Lawson says:

9th March 2018 at 5:58 pm

Postscript: Paul Scott of Stockopedia made some interesting comments on Conviviality including the suggestion that they might be at risk of breaching their banking covenants and hence might have to do another placing. Certainly worth reading his analysis before plunging into the stock. He also commented negatively on the mid-day timings of the announcements from Conviviality and Fulham Share which I agree with, unless there was some compulsive reason to do them – perhaps they were aware of the Investors Chronicle commentary being issued.

Roger Lawson

Group description:	SIGnet Taunton is a new group with around 10 keen members at present, with a range of investment styles and experience. We welcome new members.
Meeting Type/Venue:	In person meetings at a golf club near to the centre of Taunton.
Meeting Frequency/Timing:	We meet on the first Monday of every month at a golf club near to the centre of Taunton, 11am until 3pm with a lunch break.

Group description:	An online group for those who are new to investing, or have only been investing for a few years. Including topics such as: – What is a share or a bond, why and how to buy them. – Comparing funds, unit trusts, Investment trusts and exchange traded funds. – Portfolio management and diversification. – ISAs, pensions, SIPPS and how to save tax. – How terms such as PE ratio and dividend yield are used to value a share. – How to use technical analysis or charting.
Meeting Type/Venue:	Online using Zoom.
Meeting Frequency/Timing:	Meetings are usually held on the last Monday of the month at 7:00pm.

Group description:	An online group for those who already have some experience in investing. Covering topics such as finding companies to invest in, financial statements and ratios, valuation / margin of safety, analysis of companies and investment trusts and exchange traded funds.
Meeting Type/Venue:	Online using Zoom.
Meeting Frequency/Timing:	Meetings are usually held on the last Wednesday of the month at 7:00pm.

Group description:	The Equity Income Group welcomes investors of all levels of experience, from beginners to advanced. The focus of meetings is on dividend paying Investment Trusts, though there is also discussion around individual shares.
Meeting Type/Venue:	Meetings are held online.
Meeting Frequency/Timing:	Meetings are held every 6 weeks on a weekday between 7 and 8:30pm.

Group description:	The Group welcomes investors of all levels of experience, from beginners to advanced. The focus of meetings is on all types of income generating financial instruments, from stocks through Trusts and Funds and ETFs to retail bonds. Meetings involve presentations from members, who are also expected to lead discussions from time to time, as well as discussions on what has been bought and sold since the last meeting.
Meeting Type/Venue:	Meetings are in-person in a venue in Central London.
Meeting Frequency/Timing:	Meetings are usually held on the last Thursday of every other month, starting with an informal lunch around 1pm followed by discussions until around 5pm.

The Dangers of Share Tipping, Alliance Trust and AIM Regulation

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Group description:	A welcoming group open to all types of investors. Typical meeting content is to have a deep dive presentation on a topic selected by the participants and a session on buy/ sell/ key lessons learnt last month.
Meeting Type/Venue:	In person at a friendly pub close to Piccadilly Circus
Meeting Frequency/Timing:	Monthly during the evening on the first Wednesday of the month.

Group description:	Our group is a broad church that contains investors of varying experience. Our members’ backgrounds are diverse and include corporate banking, engineering, teaching and the leisure industry. We generally pick a discussion topic for every meeting, e.g. housebuilders or the defence industry, and members are invited to research and discuss different aspects or companies within that industry. We also discuss stocks and investment trusts that we have bought, sold or are interested in and the reasons behind our decisions, and try to make sense of the ever changing investment environment. Discussions are robust and challenging but we are a friendly and approachable group who welcome investors of all levels – we just ask that you contribute, at whatever level you can.
Meeting Type/Venue:	Our meetings are held in a private room at a nice pub near to South Ealing tube station (Piccadilly Line), not far from Ealing Broadway (District, Central and Elizabeth Line).
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Group description:	All levels of experience welcome. A typical meeting agenda includes: – Macro Environment – Trades: Members review existing positions and identify securities with promising TA entry patterns or setups and with suitable risk/reward. Any security, long, short, futures, options may be considered. The convener takes actual positions in trades and maintains his own detailed ledger, accurately measuring performance of individual securities and cumulative activity. Members are notified by e-mail prior to the entries or exits that are decided upon. Following each meeting an updated copy of the ledger is circulated together with the next meeting agenda. Members may wish to maintain similar ledgers of their own but there is no obligation to do so. – Technical Analysis: Techniques and systems used in trades. Members can request discussion of particular aspects of TA.
Meeting Type/Venue:	Online via Zoom
Meeting Frequency/Timing:	The first Tuesday of every month from 7 to 9pm

Group description:	Open to all investors / people with an interest in investing. Typical meeting will involve members talking about recent purchases, successes, failures and possible future purchases. Also with occasional visiting speakers or members making presentations on a topic of interest.
Meeting Type/Venue:	We aim to meet on the last Tuesday of each month in a private room at a pub in Playhatch. Start time 7pm with members encouraged to meet up around 6pm for a bite to eat / drink before hand, if their diaries allow.
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The Dangers of Share Tipping, Alliance Trust and AIM Regulation

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